The win-or-go-home nature of a Game 7 means everything is magnified.
After playing nearly 200 games apiece, starting from when pitchers and catchers reported all the way back in mid-February, it comes down to Monday's Game 7 of the American League Championship Series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners. Win and the World Series awaits, lose and be left wondering how long it will take for an opportunity like Monday to come along again.
Possibly no player has more of an impact on the all-important Game 7 than the starting pitcher. Monday's matchup features two good ones.
Going for the Blue Jays is right-hander Shane Bieber, Toronto's top trade deadline acquisition brought in for situations exactly like this one. For the Mariners, it's righty George Kirby, who more than lived up to the billing in the Mariners 15-inning epic with the Detroit Tigers in Game 5 of the ALDS earlier this month.
Here is a breakdown of tonight's starters ahead of one of the most important games in franchise history for both teams.
Bieber had not pitched in the big leagues since April of 2024 when Toronto acquired him at the trade deadline from the Cleveland Guardians.
He was coming off Tommy John surgery and despite positive indications of his rehab and recovery, the Jays took a gamble when they sent pitching prospect Khal Stephen to the Guardians for a 30-year-old fresh off a major elbow procedure and set to become a free agent in the off-season.
Bieber dazzled in his first start on Aug. 22 and was solid down the stretch of the regular season, going 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA in seven starts.
His postseason debut with the Jays left much room for improvement.
On Oct. 10 against the New York Yankees in Game 3 of the AL Division Series, Bieber lasted just two and two-thirds innings, allowing three runs (two earned) with five hits and one walk. It turned out to be the only game the Jays lost in the series.
It looked like more of the same in ALCS Game 3 against the Seattle Mariners when Bieber allowed a two-run first-inning homer to outfielder Julio Rodriguez. It was a demoralizing blow considering the Jays already trailed 2-0 in the best-of-seven series after dropping the first two in Toronto. But Bieber had a message to his teammates after giving up the homer.
"Pick me up. I got good stuff tonight," Bieber said to his teammates via The Athletic.
He was right.
The home run was all Bieber allowed the rest of the way, and the Jays went on to score 12 consecutive runs to take Game 3 and jump back in the series. He finished the night with eight strikeouts and just four hits allowed in six innings, allowing the Toronto bullpen to catch some extra rest, which was essential considering the two-three-two series setup that had the Jays playing each of the next two nights.
This is Bieber's third postseason. His first came in his Cy Young-winning season in 2020 when he was knocked around in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series by the New York Yankees, allowing seven earned runs. But the California native redeemed himself in October two years later, allowing a combined total of three earned runs over 13.1 innings pitched in the Wild Card Series and the ALDS for Cleveland.
After his first two outings for Toronto this Fall, Bieber's postseason ERA stands at 4.73 in 26.2 innings pitched spread out over five starts.
Like Bieber, Kirby has been up-and-down both in this year's playoffs and his postseason career.
He struck out eight in five innings against the Tigers in Game 1 of the Division Series, allowing two runs in five innings. Facing superstar Tarik Skubal in a do-or-die Game 5, Kirby turned in five electric innings and allowed just one run, helping the Mariners eventually prevail in their 15-inning marathon, even if there ended up being 10 additional innings played after Kirby departed.
He fanned six and, had the Mariners known how deep they'd have to dip into their bullpen, likely could have thrown an inning or two more considering his electric stuff.
But Kirby had nothing in Game 3 of the ALCS against the Jays, allowing three home runs and eight earned runs in four innings. The outing bumped his 2025 postseason ERA to 7.07 and raised his career mark to 4.50.
Kirby's playoff career got off an incredible start in 2022 when he closed out the Jays in Game 2 of the Wild Card series, locking down an incredible comeback that saw the Mariners erase an 8-1 deficit.
He turned in seven scoreless innings the round after against the Houston Astros but was unable to pick up the win after the Astros won 1-0 in 18 innings.
Given the skates, managers generally have a quick hook in the postseason. It's even quicker in winner-take-all games.
With no tomorrow for the team that comes up short, multiple starting pitchers are expected to be available for their respective teams out of the bullpen. Game 5 starter Kevin Gausman told reporters after Friday's loss that he would be available out of the bullpen should the series hit seven games. On the flip side, starters Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo could be available for the Mariners in relief after light workloads so far in the series.
If either Bieber or Kirby aren't sharp, pitching changes could happen early and often Monday night as these two teams fight tooth and nail to book a date with the Los Angeles Dodgers on baseball's biggest stage.