Expectation grows as the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature approaches. As every year, the most prestigious award in the literary world sparks speculation, passion, and heated debate. This Thursday, the Swedish Academy will reveal the name of the new laureate, putting an end to months of guesswork from readers, scholars, betting houses, and the global publishing industry.
Although there is no way to accurately predict who will receive the prize, betting markets often act as an emotional and cultural compass for the literary world. In 2025, these platforms have once again placed both classic and contemporary names at the top of their rankings. Here's who is leading the lists.
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Although mystery is an essential part of the Nobel's aura, betting houses have once again become a thermometer for measuring the chances of certain names. This year, the cultural and geographic diversity of the frontrunners reflects a moment of broad plurality in global literature.
Chinese writer Can Xue, known for her experimental style, and Hungarian author László Krasznahorkai, famous for his dense, existential prose, lead several of the main lists. Both have long been considered "Nobel-worthy" authors for their coherent, demanding, and deeply literary bodies of work.
Alongside them, Spanish-language writers also stand out. Mexican author Cristina Rivera Garza, recognized for her genre-defying, narrative-transgressing work, and Spanish novelist Enrique Vila-Matas, a key figure in Hispanic postmodernism, are also highly ranked. They are in a technical tie with Australian Gerald Murnane, Romanian Mircea Cărtărescu -- another frequent presence in Nobel forecasts -- and the elusive American Thomas Pynchon, whose media reclusiveness fuels his literary legend.
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In addition to the aforementioned favorites, other strong contenders emerge. Indian novelist Amitav Ghosh, for example, has gained attention for his narratives focused on climate change and colonialism. Also frequently mentioned are recurring Nobel hopefuls: Japanese author Haruki Murakami, an eternal candidate with a massive fan base, British-American Salman Rushdie, whose public stature took on renewed symbolism after the 2022 attack he survived, and Canadian poet Anne Carson, one of the most innovative voices in contemporary poetry.
Antiguan writer Jamaica Kincaid, known for exploring the legacy of colonialism in the Caribbean, and well-established authors like Margaret Atwood, Russian Lyudmila Ulitskaya, and Greek Ersi Sotiropoulos round out the landscape of possible laureates.
This year, the jury is made up of six members of the Swedish Academy, who serve in rotating terms of three years. The current group includes:
From June through August, this select group read extensively through the preselected titles. In September, they began their final deliberations. According to the strict Nobel regulations, the records of these discussions will not be made public for 50 years.
Last year, the prize was awarded to South Korean writer Han Kang, a decision widely celebrated as recognition of a poetic voice that confronts violence, historical trauma, and the fragility of the human body. Her work, already translated into numerous languages, has opened new windows into contemporary Asian literature, setting a precedent for more diverse future winners.
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Although the symbolic value of the Nobel Prize in Literature far outweighs any monetary amount, it also includes a substantial financial reward. In 2025, the Nobel Foundation has set the prize amount at 11 million Swedish kronor, which is approximately 1.1 million US dollars.
This sum is awarded in full to a single laureate or split if the prize is shared. In addition to the money, the winner receives a commemorative medal and a diploma, traditionally presented at the December 10th ceremony in Stockholm, the anniversary of Alfred Nobel's death.
Established in 1901, the Nobel Prize in Literature is one of the most important cultural honors worldwide. Its purpose, according to Alfred Nobel's will, is to reward the author who has produced "the most outstanding work in an ideal direction." This ambiguous definition has been the subject of much interpretation over time, allowing the prize to recognize poets, playwrights, essayists, and novelists from across the globe.