Ukraine must urgently find an alternative to American Patriot missiles, capable of intercepting Russia's ballistic missiles as it cannot count on new shipments due to worsening relations with the US, says military analyst David Axe in a report for Forbes.
Axe emphasizes that Ukraine can either produce most other necessary weaponry itself or receive it from European allies. However, when it comes to the world's most advanced air defense systems, the US holds an almost monopolistic position among democratic nations.
With Trump increasingly leaning toward Russia, Ukraine and Europe can no longer rely on stable American support, says the analyst.
He recalls that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer recently announced a $2 billion aid package, which includes 5,000 short-range Martlet air defense missiles produced by the French company Thales. Additionally, Norway's Kongsberg has revealed plans for joint production of NASAMS air defense missiles in Ukraine. However, according to Axe, neither of these initiatives addresses Ukraine's long-range air defense needs.
He explains that while Martlet missiles have an effective range of up to 8 km and NASAMS up to 40 km, Patriot systems can intercept Russia's missiles, drones, and nearly all ballistic missiles at distances of over 100 km. Given this, Axe argues that European nations must urgently equip Ukraine with a fully European-made air defense system equivalent to the Patriot.
He identifies only one realistic option -- the SAMP/T system, often referred to as the "Euro-Patriot," jointly developed by the MBDA and Eurosam Thales consortiums. Ukraine currently has two SAMP/T batteries but requires significantly more, along with hundreds of Aster missiles used by these systems.
Axe notes that Eurosam previously took nearly four years from contract signing to missile delivery, but the consortium has pledged to reduce this timeline to 18 months.
He also recalls that last fall, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu threatened to push through a new French law to accelerate missile production. This pressure yielded results: as of last year, the French government expected MBDA to deliver an initial batch of 400 Aster missiles (worth $2.2 billion) by the end of the year. Paris also planned to transfer nearly all of these missiles to Ukraine.