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A third of the NFL season is complete, a sufficient sample of football to merit at least a cursory study of the division standings.
It's far too soon to hand anyone a crown, but there are some teams sitting atop divisions whose perch may be particularly perilous. This isn't about the upstart New England Patriots or Indianapolis Colts but more about teams that have become accustomed to such lofty spots who are at least tied for their division lead as we head into late October. Some of them are on borrowed time. Some of them already seem to know it.
It's hardly unusual to see the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills leading their divisions, but all have produced game film and statistics that prompt serious concern about their staying power. The Los Angeles Chargers lead an AFC West that might be the best division in football, and their time atop the standings is probably waning, too. The trade deadline will provide a forum for these clubs to fortify their rosters and patch up some holes, and a few might even go the more drastic route of shaking up their assistant coaches. All had best do something.
None of these teams can feel particularly great about how they have performed to this point. Here's why:
49ERS (NFC West)
Scouts and evaluators looked at San Francisco (4-2) as an aging roster with massive injury concerns, and that has proved out. Losing do-everything linebacker Fred Warner on top of the season-long loss of their sole impact pass rusher, Nick Bosa, immediately opened up the field for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, and that will remain the case in future games. The 49ers lack playmakers in the secondary, too (no interceptions since November), and with both quarterbacks hobbled and the offensive line allowing six sacks against Tampa Bay, it's fair to wonder whether we already have seen the best from this team.
San Francisco is averaging an abysmal 3.1 yards per carry, and running back Christian McCaffrey is dealing with an unsustainable workload. It's an inexact metric, but the fact that the 49ers are 4-11 against the spread in their past 15 games is a sign of underperformance over a significant time frame.
"They need their offense from two years ago to overcome this defense," said one longtime NFL evaluator and former general manager who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they're not permitted to comment on teams publicly, "but that's not what they have."
EAGLES (NFC East)
It's kind of unfathomable for the defending Super Bowl champions to have been outgained in every game this season. But that's the case. The Eagles have been outscored 52-17 in the past five quarters alone.
Injuries to the offensive line have been crushing. The Eagles (4-2) have allowed the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL, and Saquon Barkley is somehow averaging 71.1 fewer rushing yards than a year ago. Jalen Hurts seems unwilling to risk interceptions by throwing into tight windows, wide receiver A.J. Brown is miffed again, and the Eagles are averaging just 4.7 yards per play (tied for 28th entering Week 7).
All of that may be symptomatic of a larger issue that is undermining the offense. (There is more hope for a defensive reversal with powerful defensive tackle Jalen Carter vowing to play this weekend.)
CHARGERS (AFC West)
Here come the Kansas City Chiefs. They are getting dominant deep threat Rashee Rice back from suspension this week at a time when Patrick Mahomes is getting better protection. All three running backs are contributing, and the offense has rolled up 28 or more points in three straight games. Oh, yeah, they also get the Las Vegas Raiders this week.
As for the Chargers (4-2), the offensive line looked like the team's biggest strength in the summer (at least the tackle position), but injuries have undermined that. They had to fight and claw just to beat the sad Miami Dolphins last week, and Los Angeles is in the bottom 10 in the NFL in pressure rate allowed. Only Tennessee Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward has been hit more times than the Chargers' Justin Herbert, and that has to scare Coach Jim Harbaugh. In the past three weeks, Herbert has been hit 26 times. You would want to run the ball more effectively at a time such as this. But injuries have taken a big toll on the running backs room, and the interior of the offensive line was always problematic. This looks like the third-best team in the AFC West.
BILLS (AFC East)
The offense lacks any consistent vertical threat, and the defense has one of the lightest fronts in the NFL and cannot defend the run. If you goad the Bills' safeties into the box, they can still be run over (as the bruising Falcons displayed Monday night), and they lack two-gappers to dissuade from attacking them up the gut. And with every-down linebacker Matt Milano hurt again, they are vulnerable in the screen game, too. Buffalo is last in rush defense expected points added (by a huge margin) and fourth worst in success rate, allowing a staggering 5.8 yards per carry.
Might the Bills (4-2) have to lean even more into quarterback Josh Allen's legs and running back James Cook to keep that defense off the field and grind the clock?
The Patriots' youth probably sways the division Buffalo's way in the end, but if New England, which already has beaten the Bills in Orchard Park, N.Y., manages to sweep the season series, it's a different story.