The Flood Commission of Pakistan reports that the country has experienced 32 severe flood events starting in 1950, with the current event being the 33rd. Since 2010, it has been a regular annual event, although the intensity varies from year to year. In total, we have lost 8,461 lives since 2010, including this year from June 25 to September 2.
The floods of 2010 and 2022 are recorded as the worst in history, affecting vast areas across all four provinces, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir. This year's floods will probably be the third.
Historically, floods were a natural climatic phenomenon. The ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) phenomenon was discovered over a century ago. Climate change resulting from the industrial revolution has intensified this phenomenon in Pakistan, as in many other countries. Extreme El Nino and La Nina events are occurring more frequently. Flash floods have become the new normal for Pakistan.
Climate change is a pressing reality that has affected the entire world. While the impact may be more severe in some countries like Pakistan, no country is immune. Natural climate changes have always occurred, but human-driven climate change began with the Industrial Revolution in the 1750s. Since 1950, climate change has been unprecedented in its speed and scale compared to past cycles, as evidenced by extreme weather events.
Not just Pakistan; the South Asian region is experiencing torrential rains and flash floods regularly. Densely populated flood-prone river basins in this region have put hundreds of millions of people at risk. Pakistan's vulnerability is perhaps more compared to its neighbours due to its geographic location downstream within the Indus River basin. Around 80 per cent of Pakistan's surface water comes from rivers flowing through China, India and Afghanistan. As a downstream country, Pakistan is heavily affected by upstream activities, particularly from India. This year too, heavy rainfall in India led to the release of water from various dams, resulting in substantial flooding of Pakistan's rivers.
In Pakistan, flash floods are not just driven by climate change or geographical factors; they are influenced mainly by human mismanagement and intervention in nature. This year, rivers have not overflowed; instead, they are reclaiming their rightful territory that humans have intruded upon.
Coastal flooding has increased due to coastal storms, while northern regions face risks from glacial lake outburst floods, which are a consequence of climate change. However, riverine flooding is causing urban flooding due to inadequate drainage systems, exacerbated by unplanned urban expansion.
What has Pakistan done so far to enhance its adaptive capacity, aside from establishing various organisations at the national and provincial levels and designing different policies and strategies? The recent catastrophe has exposed the shortcomings of these efforts, showing that the country has primarily been reactive rather than proactive.
The common excuse for the past many years has been the lack of financial resources. Pakistan has primarily focused its efforts on seeking foreign assistance instead of prioritising necessary economic and governance reforms that are preventing the country from adopting a proactive approach and are essential for mitigating the impacts of future disasters.
There has been a growing argument that Pakistan is suffering the consequences of the industrial revolution in the West. This perspective has become a cornerstone in the country's diplomatic efforts to secure a share of the global climate fund. Following the devastating floods in 2022, these efforts have intensified. Pakistan is actively aligning its policies with the global climate agenda, rather than prioritising local needs. The objective is to enable the country to access global climate financing to support climate adaptation and mitigation. While it has secured some support, is this a sustainable approach to deal with floods or climate adaptation?
Pakistan may not be a significant contributor to global warming, but it is responsible for its suffering due to poor development priorities, mismanagement, bad governance and a lacklustre approach to dealing with climate-related catastrophes. Our obsession with foreign assistance must end. By implementing growth-oriented reforms, the country could achieve immediate growth and stability, even in challenging situations such as floods or other disasters. This approach would enable Pakistan to generate resources for adaptation, rehabilitation and other essential needs.
Our obsession with large dams must also end. While decision-makers view them as solutions, experts have long stated that they are not effective. Pakistan should adopt 'nature-based solutions' tailored to the needs of upstream, midstream and downstream communities. If dams overflow and breach, the consequences can be even more disastrous. Global examples, such as the Edenville Dam collapse in Michigan (2020) and the Vajont Dam disaster in Italy (1963), show the dangers of dam failures and the need for more sustainable water management approaches.
The argument that dams are cost-effective for electricity generation is also flawed. Cost assessments often overlook significant social and environmental externalities, which, when accounted for, can have a multiplier effect on the dam's total costs. And hydropower projects require not only high upfront costs but also often experience delays and cost overruns, as seen in the Neelum-Jhelum, Diamer-Bhasha and Tarbela extension projects. Dams are unsuitable for baseload generation due to water availability fluctuations and require expensive transmission infrastructure to connect to demand centres.
The perception of hydroelectricity as a clean and efficient energy source has changed. Advancements in technology and the rise of cheaper alternatives like solar and wind, along with battery storage, have shifted the landscape. While nuclear energy requires significant investment, it offers a long lifespan, suitability for baseload power and minimal environmental impact, compared to dams.
Floods will continue in the future. Water experts agree that we cannot control nature and must learn to deal with it. Instead of building dams, we should invest in aquifers, waterways, ponds and lakes, which require fewer financial resources. We must manage water where it is needed; otherwise, it will follow its own course, destroying everything in its path.
We need to stop the blame game for climate change. Recognising India as an adversary, we must be prepared for any situation. Pakistan is unlikely to receive significant external support without conditions. Therefore, it should focus on new ideas and reforms to encourage growth, as this is the best way forward for its future.
The writer is an energy expert and senior research economist at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Islamabad.